Wage Caps and Police Performance: Evidence from New Jersey’s Arbitration Reform (JMP)
Abstract: This paper examines how fiscal limits on police pay affect performance by studying New Jersey’s 2% arbitration cap on police salary awards between 2011 and 2017. Using a novel panel of police contracts, arbitration outcomes, and clearance rates, I apply staggered difference-in-differences and event-study designs to compare outcomes before and after the cap. The results show that the cap substantially reduced wage growth without causing large or consistent declines in police productivity. I argue that the policy’s transparency and uniformity mitigated morale effects, while compensation adjustments through overtime and benefits likely offset part of the wage restraint. Overall, the findings suggest that well-designed pay constraints can achieve fiscal savings without severely undermining service quality. Link
How does an active street life affect crime? An investigation into criminal opportunities and deterrence.
Abstract:This paper investigates the impact of foot traffic, measured through mobile phone GPS data, on crime in Chicago. Using Poisson regression with fixed effects at the Census block-hourly level, the results reveal a nonlinear relationship between pedestrian activity and crime that varies by event type and location. Attract foot traffic type sidewalk closures, which concentrate foot traffic, are associated with increases in crime within the closed block, while divert foot traffic type sidewalk closures, which reroute foot traffic away, reduce crime. Post-Stay-at-Home effects further highlight this dynamic: while overall crime declined due to lower foot traffic, visits still had a positive effect on crime, albeit weaker than before the lockdown. Crime increases are most pronounced in restaurants (+0.53) and outdoor spaces (+0.17) per 100 visits, particularly on weekends. Link
Use of Force in Policing (with Anne Morrison Piehl)
Abstract: After assembling a comprehensive data collection on the use of force by local law enforcement officers in New Jersey, we study how force varies within and across nearly 500 municipalities. We find that younger officers consistently use force more frequently than older officers, an effect that is magnified when paired with young victims. While we find that rates of the use of force per officer are higher in smaller police agencies, we also find that the influence of age, salary, and rank on reducing the likelihood of force is more pronounced in larger police agencies. The outcome measure in this study is much broader than the incidence of severe injuries or death by police and captures force that may be legally justifiable in carrying routine police activities. Nonetheless, we interpret the measure as an indicator of police performance, as consistently higher rates of force may indicate poor community relations, police training, or the management and deployment of policing authority.
The Impact of Collective Bargaining on Police Wages and Benefits in New Jersey